Smoked
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$10.71
Advertised RTP
93.94%
EV $10.06 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.58%
58 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 58 openings and 13.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/smoked/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $10.71 | 93.94% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $10.93 | 92.05% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.93 | 94.47% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.0%covert 2.7%legendary 0.0%classified 14.0%extraordinary 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%Immortal 0.2%rare 0.2%restricted 5.2%covert knife 0.5%red 0.7%uncommon 6.9%mil spec 10.4%Legendary 13.1%pink 12.8%Classified 6.3%violet 5.8%Mythical 5.4%#4b69ff 8.0%common 4.1%#8847ff 3.5%best hit —