Snackbar
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.29
Advertised RTP
92.03%
EV $0.27 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.56%
14K openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
59.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 91.99% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (95.29% – 101.83%, 13,976 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/snackbar/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.03%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.29 | 92.03% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.29 | 90.96% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 6.6%covert 0.0%rare 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%red 0.0%pink 0.0%restricted 12.4%Mythical 0.0%classified 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%Rare 12.3%mil spec 1.3%#8847ff 1.8%violet 8.3%blueLight 4.1%#4b69ff 12.1%Uncommon 12.4%#5e98d9 6.4%industrial 12.2%milspec 5.8%light blue 4.3%best hit $189 (650.1x)