Sweet
A case on CSGORUN (halloween2026), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$2.00
Advertised RTP
90.83%
EV $1.82 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.74%
11.5K openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.5K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/sweet/show, 8 Nov, 19:51 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.83%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.00 | 90.83% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.00 | 93.13% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%industrial 9.4%sunny 0.0%mil spec 26.6%pink 4.6%classified 0.7%#4b69ff 0.3%uncommon 6.7%#d32ee6 1.1%Industrial Grade 12.1%Industrial 2.0%restricted 5.2%Mil Spec Grade 3.5%blue 4.3%Restricted 5.6%Mythical 7.7%gray 3.7%Consumer Grade 2.9%Common 3.6%best hit —