Tatsumaki
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$5.02
Advertised RTP
93.82%
EV $4.71 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.10%
82 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 82 openings and 17.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 82 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/tatsumaki/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.82%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $5.02 | 93.82% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $5.14 | 91.63% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.14 | 93.92% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 0.5%classified 15.1%gold 0.0%restricted 13.7%covert knife 0.0%Mythical 7.4%industrial 0.1%rare 0.1%mil spec 0.3%Rare 9.5%uncommon 6.0%pink 7.7%consumer 5.9%Industrial Grade 5.7%#8847ff 10.2%blue 9.6%Legendary 4.8%#4b69ff 3.4%best hit —