Thisisfine
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.39
Advertised RTP
93.80%
EV $0.37 from 46 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.29%
12.6K openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.6K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/thisisfine/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.80%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.39 | 93.80% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.39 | 95.77% | 46 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 9.2%3 6.3%covert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%violet 1.4%pink 1.4%classified 0.0%uncommon 0.0%restricted 8.7%Mythical 0.8%#8847ff 1.0%mil spec 9.7%Uncommon 18.6%Mil Spec Grade 6.3%#4b69ff 20.4%blueLight 6.9%industrial 9.2%best hit $19.75 (50.64x)