Token
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$1.15
Advertised RTP
93.42%
EV $1.07 from 25 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.99%
1,508 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,509 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/token/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.42%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.15 | 93.42% | 25 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.19 | 90.28% | 25 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.19 | 91.82% | 25 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 4.6%extraordinary 0.0%classified 7.5%Mil Spec Grade 5.9%mil spec 5.5%#8847ff 7.7%restricted 14.5%Rare 10.9%Uncommon 2.8%Mythical 4.5%#4b69ff 11.0%uncommon 10.5%blue 11.3%milspec 3.4%best hit —