Trophyhunt
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$2.28
Advertised RTP
93.85%
EV $2.14 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.24%
261 openings, odds method
Variance
5.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 261 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/trophyhunt/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.28 | 93.85% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.35 | 91.06% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.35 | 92.89% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 3.7%classified 0.5%legendary 0.0%covert 0.0%Covert 0.0%restricted 12.1%Immortal 0.0%rare 0.0%covert knife 0.0%red 0.0%Classified 3.6%pink 17.3%#d32ee6 5.0%uncommon 3.9%Legendary 2.8%Mythical 11.5%#8847ff 12.4%violet 10.9%blueLight 6.5%#4b69ff 5.7%Uncommon 4.2%best hit —