Vertigo

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$1.99

Advertised RTP

91.62%

EV $1.82 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.39%

353 openings, sample method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

49.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

353 openings · below min

30 days

353 openings · below min

since tracking started

353 openings · below min

-0.5%74.0%148.5%

Small sample. 353 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	64.07%±83.9	—	odds
7d	353	92.39%±5.09	—	sample
30d	353	92.39%±5.09	—	sample
All	353	92.39%±5.09	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 353 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 90,909	$223	0.1%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 8,772	$47.67	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 7,092	$43.69	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 4,082	$37.17	0.5%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,433	$22.75	0.9%	0	0.2	—
Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 431	$14.40	1.8%	0	0.8	—
P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 42	$4.92	6.4%	11	8.3	1.32×
PP-Bizon \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)weapon	1 in 42	$4.31	5.6%	9	8.3	1.08×
PP-Bizon \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 40	$4.29	6.0%	9	8.9	1.01×
XM1014 \| Urban Perforated (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 24	$2.99	6.9%	15	14.8	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 16	$2.82	9.6%	18	22.0	0.82×
P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$2.61	7.3%	26	17.9	1.45×
MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	26.8%	$1.38	20.3%	89	94.7	0.94×
XM1014 \| Urban Perforated (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	50.1%	$1.24	34.1%	176	176.8	1.00×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/vertigo/show, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.