Vicecity

A case on CSGORUN (gta2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$9.99
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $9.39 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.48%
1,399 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
47.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
94.15%±7.28455 openings
7 days
91.48%±4.151,399 openings
30 days
91.48%±4.151,399 openings
since tracking started
91.48%±4.151,399 openings
86.0%94.0%102.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h45594.15%±7.28+0.0σodds
7d1,39991.48%±4.15−1.2σodds
30d1,39991.48%±4.15−1.2σodds
All1,39991.48%±4.15−1.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,463 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 1,000,000$5460.0%00.0—
★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary1 in 333,333$4420.0%00.0—
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 166,667$3400.0%00.0—
★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 71,429$2710.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 28,571$2070.1%00.1—
★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 12,048$1620.1%00.1—
★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 5,814$1200.2%00.3—
R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 2,660$96.240.4%00.6—
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,098$73.010.7%01.30.00×
M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 657$60.101.0%32.21.35×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 295$45.931.7%35.00.60×
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 211$39.532.0%76.91.01×
Five-SeveN | Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 162$34.412.3%99.01.00×
Five-SeveN | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 97$28.153.1%1015.10.66×
MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 66$23.123.7%1822.10.81×
MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$19.8010.6%7973.51.07×
Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 34$15.794.9%3942.70.91×
Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 21$13.486.8%6669.40.95×
Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 25$13.005.5%5457.80.93×
MP7 | Neon Ply (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 17$12.347.9%8988.51.01×
P90 | ScaraB Rush (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 16$11.977.8%8789.20.97×
MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 13$10.248.7%113117.00.97×
P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 32$10.143.4%4445.80.96×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 12$10.038.9%128122.51.04×
Galil AR | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 32$9.213.1%4645.81.00×
MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 32$6.892.3%4945.81.07×
MP7 | Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 32$6.692.2%4145.80.90×
CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 32$5.261.8%6345.81.38×
MP7 | Neon Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 32$5.011.7%3745.80.81×
CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted1 in 32$4.881.6%3445.80.74×
M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 32$4.051.3%5145.81.11×
Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 32$3.021.0%4045.80.87×
R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 32$2.790.9%4845.81.05×
AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 32$2.600.9%4545.80.98×
MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 32$2.350.8%4645.81.00×
P250 | Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 32$2.300.8%4545.80.98×
AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 32$1.930.6%4545.80.98×
AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 32$1.710.6%4745.81.03×
P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 32$1.530.5%5345.81.16×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 205$1.100.1%67.20.84×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/vicecity/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC$9.9994.00%40
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 0.0%legendary 0.0%extraordinary 0.5%covert 0.6%rare 3.1%gold 0.0%Mil Spec Grade 3.5%mil spec 10.7%classified 11.8%restricted 38.1%violet 6.1%pink 3.1%#4b69ff 9.9%Restricted 3.1%Mythical 6.3%Rare 3.1%best hit —