Spectrum Case
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$8.42
Advertised RTP
83.25%
EV $7.01 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
59.45%
1,160 openings, odds method
Variance
15.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 83.25% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (36.55% – 82.36%, 1,160 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,219 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: spectrum-2-case), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.25%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $8.42 | 83.25% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 0.0%covert 1.3%gold 0.0%covert knife 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%Covert 0.1%classified 3.6%restricted 17.0%violet 12.0%mil spec 8.0%Rare 18.0%milspec 20.0%blue 10.0%#4b69ff 10.0%best hit —