Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$6.61
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $5.51 from 68 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.62%
1,653 openings, odds method
Variance
154.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 190
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values68 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,653 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: operation-phoenix-weapon-case), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.61 | 83.33% | 68 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.0%covert 0.5%Immortal 0.0%knifes 0.1%covert knife 0.1%sunny 0.0%classified 0.5%restricted 1.8%Legendary 0.3%Mythical 1.0%mil spec 75.7%Mil Spec 20.0%best hit $1,326 (200.5x)