OPERATION VANGUARD WEAPON CASE
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$7.87
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $6.56 from 71 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.87%
2,366 openings, odds method
Variance
25.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values71 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,373 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: operation-vanguard-weapon-case), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.87 | 83.33% | 71 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.0%covert 0.3%Immortal 0.0%knifes 0.1%covert knife 0.1%gold 0.0%sunny 0.0%restricted 7.5%classified 1.4%Mythical 1.6%Mil Spec Grade 6.0%Mil Spec 10.0%mil spec 73.0%best hit $1,237 (157.1x)