CS:GO WEAPON CASE 3
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$12.76
Advertised RTP
83.31%
EV $10.63 from 69 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.33%
1,180 openings, odds method
Variance
17.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
34.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values69 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,180 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: csgo-weapon-case-3), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.31%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $12.76 | 83.31% | 69 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.1%covert 0.5%Immortal 0.0%knifes 0.2%covert knife 0.2%sunny 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.1%restricted 3.3%mil spec 29.4%classified 0.4%#8847ff 33.0%Mil Spec Grade 33.0%best hit $1,376 (107.9x)