WINTER OFFENSIVE WEAPON CASE
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$9.70
Advertised RTP
83.31%
EV $8.08 from 70 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.97%
1,021 openings, odds method
Variance
18.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values70 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,024 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: winter-offensive-weapon-case), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.31%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $9.70 | 83.31% | 70 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.0%covert 0.4%Immortal 0.0%knifes 0.1%covert knife 0.1%sunny 0.0%classified 0.8%restricted 8.5%Mil Spec Grade 10.0%mil spec 80.0%best hit —