Armour

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$1.89

Advertised RTP

83.13%

EV $1.57 from 63 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.22%

6,188 openings, odds method

Variance

16.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 23

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

63.45%±34.52538 openings

7 days

80.15%±11.055,249 openings

30 days

80.22%±10.186,188 openings

since tracking started

80.22%±10.186,188 openings

28.5%63.5%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	538	63.45%±34.5	−1.1σ	odds
7d	5,249	80.15%±11.1	−0.5σ	odds
30d	6,188	80.22%±10.2	−0.6σ	odds
All	6,188	80.22%±10.2	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,215 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$1,016	0.6%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$554	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33,333	$302	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$301	0.6%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$240	0.5%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$211	0.5%	1	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25,000	$196	0.5%	2	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Terrace (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25,000	$182	0.5%	1	0.2	—
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$175	0.4%	0	0.2	—
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$168	0.4%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$168	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$166	0.4%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$164	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Terrace (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 25,000	$159	0.4%	0	0.2	—
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$157	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$153	0.4%	0	0.2	—
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$150	0.5%	1	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 20,000	$145	0.5%	0	0.3	—
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$142	0.5%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$141	0.4%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$140	0.4%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$136	0.4%	0	0.3	—
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$136	0.4%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$125	0.4%	0	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20,000	$120	0.4%	1	0.3	—
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$117	0.4%	0	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 20,000	$117	0.4%	1	0.3	—
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$107	0.3%	0	0.3	—
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 10,000	$97.29	0.6%	0	0.6	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$81.80	0.5%	1	0.6	—
M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$67.94	0.4%	0	0.6	—
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$64.21	0.4%	1	0.6	—
MP7 \| Full Stop (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 10,000	$60.16	0.4%	1	0.6	—
MP7 \| Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$58.77	0.4%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$54.56	0.3%	0	0.6	—
MP7 \| Full Stop (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 10,000	$53.91	0.3%	1	0.6	—
MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$52.40	0.3%	0	0.6	—
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$50.57	0.3%	0	0.6	—
MP7 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 10,000	$50.30	0.3%	0	0.6	—
M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 5,000	$48.13	0.6%	1	1.2	0.80×
M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,000	$44.87	0.6%	1	1.2	0.80×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$30.12	0.4%	1	1.2	0.80×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$30.01	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$27.84	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$27.60	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$26.46	0.3%	3	1.2	2.41×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$26.05	0.3%	2	1.2	1.61×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$25.58	0.3%	1	1.2	0.80×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 5,000	$25.40	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$24.72	0.8%	1	3.1	0.32×
MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,000	$21.74	0.7%	1	3.1	0.32×
MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,000	$20.29	0.6%	2	3.1	0.64×
MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	1 in 2,000	$20.06	0.6%	3	3.1	0.97×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$19.16	0.6%	1	3.1	0.32×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$14.49	0.9%	5	6.2	0.80×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$13.77	4.4%	28	31.1	0.90×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$13.02	4.1%	44	31.1	1.42×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 200	$12.19	3.9%	27	31.1	0.87×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$10.52	13.4%	118	124.3	0.95×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$8.48	10.8%	121	124.3	0.97×
AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	28.7%	$1.27	23.2%	1,800	1785.2	1.01×
AUG \| Ricochet (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	30.0%	$0.49	9.4%	1,878	1864.5	1.01×
AUG \| Ricochet (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	35.0%	$0.24	5.3%	2,165	2175.3	1.00×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: armour), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covertChamp.$1.89$211111.7x1d

Tec-9 | Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffScrappy Coco$1.89$196104.0x5d

Tec-9 | Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffYui(UMR)$1.89$196104.0x6d

Tec-9 | Terrace (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec司元/sliry$1.89$18296.19x2d

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1863927$1.89$16687.73x8d

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · covertKogdaKAK$1.89$15079.61x6d

MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil specQuavo Huncho$1.89$12063.63x3d

MAC-10 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Gradeкексик$1.89$11762.02x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil spec19$1.89$1.270.67x8m

AUG | Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil specBugghappen$1.89$1.270.67x8m

AUG | Ricochet (Well-Worn)weapon · 1Mayers$1.89$0.240.13x8m

AUG | Ricochet (Well-Worn)weapon · 1Shotits<3$1.89$0.240.13x11m

AUG | Ricochet (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare19$1.89$0.490.26x11m

AUG | Ricochet (Minimal Wear)weapon · RarePucho$1.89$0.490.26x11m

AUG | Ricochet (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1124827605$1.89$0.490.26x11m

AUG | Ricochet (Well-Worn)weapon · 1Mayers$1.89$0.240.13x11m

AUG | Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil spec白色领带Oba$1.89$1.270.67x11m

AUG | Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1124827605$1.89$1.270.67x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.13%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$1.89	83.13%	63

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 35.0%covert 0.1%mil spec 28.9%#4b69ff 0.0%Mil Spec Grade 0.0%red 0.0%classified 0.8%Covert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%milspec 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%restricted 4.5%Mythical 0.5%Rare 30.0%best hit $211 (111.7x)