Premium Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$156.35

Advertised RTP

83.33%

EV $130.29 from 98 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.62%

973 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

32 openings · below min

7 days

88.42%±9.92544 openings

30 days

87.62%±7.42973 openings

since tracking started

87.62%±7.42973 openings

23.0%64.5%106.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	32	64.33%±40.9	—	odds
7d	544	88.42%±9.92	+1.0σ	odds
30d	973	87.62%±7.42	+1.1σ	odds
All	973	87.62%±7.42	+1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values98 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 976 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$4,500	0.3%	1	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$4,500	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$2,201	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$2,100	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$1,956	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$1,782	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$1,734	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,525	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,000	$1,494	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$1,350	0.5%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$1,348	0.5%	0	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 1,000	$1,245	1.0%	1	1.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$1,130	0.9%	0	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,080	0.8%	1	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$1,059	0.8%	4	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$985	1.5%	3	2.0	1.54×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$955	1.5%	3	2.0	1.54×
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$940	1.4%	2	2.0	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$931	1.4%	1	2.0	0.51×
AWP \| BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$900	1.4%	1	2.0	0.51×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$872	1.3%	5	2.0	2.56×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$693	1.1%	1	2.0	0.51×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$689	1.1%	3	2.0	1.54×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$664	1.0%	0	2.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$658	1.0%	0	2.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$656	1.0%	3	2.0	1.54×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 400	$587	1.1%	2	2.4	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 400	$554	1.1%	3	2.4	1.23×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 400	$535	1.0%	1	2.4	0.41×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 400	$534	1.0%	2	2.4	0.82×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$471	1.8%	7	4.9	1.43×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$385	1.5%	7	4.9	1.43×
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$373	1.4%	2	4.9	0.41×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$360	1.4%	8	4.9	1.64×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$342	1.3%	6	4.9	1.23×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 200	$321	1.2%	2	4.9	0.41×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$315	1.2%	8	4.9	1.64×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$297	1.1%	8	4.9	1.64×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$294	1.1%	7	4.9	1.43×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$287	1.1%	6	4.9	1.23×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$275	1.1%	7	4.9	1.43×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$268	1.0%	6	4.9	1.23×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$267	1.0%	5	4.9	1.02×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$261	1.0%	5	4.9	1.02×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$257	1.0%	10	4.9	2.05×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 200	$256	1.0%	2	4.9	0.41×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$233	0.9%	3	4.9	0.61×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$230	0.9%	3	4.9	0.61×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$222	0.9%	2	4.9	0.41×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$201	0.8%	8	4.9	1.64×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$200	1.5%	9	9.8	0.92×
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$197	1.5%	2	9.8	0.20×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$197	1.5%	9	9.8	0.92×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$189	1.5%	12	9.8	1.23×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$184	1.4%	9	9.8	0.92×
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$182	1.4%	8	9.8	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$175	1.3%	7	9.8	0.72×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$175	1.3%	8	9.8	0.82×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$174	1.3%	10	9.8	1.02×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$168	1.3%	11	9.8	1.13×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$165	1.3%	18	9.8	1.84×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$165	1.3%	11	9.8	1.13×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$164	1.3%	13	9.8	1.33×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$164	1.3%	12	9.8	1.23×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$160	1.2%	6	9.8	0.61×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$155	1.2%	11	9.8	1.13×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$152	1.2%	14	9.8	1.43×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 100	$149	1.1%	6	9.8	0.61×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$147	1.1%	9	9.8	0.92×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 100	$144	1.1%	12	9.8	1.23×
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$144	1.1%	8	9.8	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 100	$138	1.1%	10	9.8	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$137	1.0%	12	9.8	1.23×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$136	1.0%	14	9.8	1.43×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$134	1.0%	10	9.8	1.02×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$131	1.0%	3	9.8	0.31×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$122	0.9%	11	9.8	1.13×
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Battle-Scarred)gloves · sunny	1 in 100	$118	0.9%	8	9.8	0.82×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$117	0.9%	8	9.8	0.82×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$116	0.9%	7	9.8	0.72×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$116	0.9%	5	9.8	0.51×
★ Ursus Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$105	0.8%	12	9.8	1.23×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$103	0.8%	12	9.8	1.23×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$99.23	1.1%	14	14.6	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$96.51	1.1%	12	14.6	0.82×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$94.19	1.1%	17	14.6	1.16×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$93.12	1.1%	16	14.6	1.09×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$84.00	1.0%	20	14.6	1.37×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$75.77	1.2%	19	19.5	0.97×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$56.61	1.3%	25	29.3	0.85×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$49.93	1.1%	34	29.3	1.16×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$42.85	1.0%	25	29.3	0.85×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$29.21	0.9%	41	39.0	1.05×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$21.17	0.8%	41	48.8	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$19.43	0.7%	49	48.8	1.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$15.48	0.6%	39	48.8	0.80×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$11.00	0.5%	58	58.6	0.99×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 10	$4.88	0.4%	100	94.2	1.06×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: premium), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified1454472$156$4,50028.78x1d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare[BOT] Max Cady$156$1,2457.96x2d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covertCode Memotv$156$1,0806.91x2d

AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified[BOT] Bane$156$1,0596.77x1d

AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified[BOT] T-1000$156$1,0596.77x2d

AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified[BOT] Mr. Blonde$156$1,0596.77x7d

AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified[BOT] HAL 9000$156$1,0596.77x7d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1454472$156$9856.30x1d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert[BOT] Bane$156$9856.30x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red[BOT] Dr. Evil$156$1440.92x6h

AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert[BOT] King Joffrey$156$84.000.54x6h

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert[BOT] Magneto$156$3152.01x6h

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified[BOT] Patrick Bateman$156$56.610.36x6h

M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert[BOT] Alonzo Harris$156$1470.94x6h

M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedDave$156$29.210.19x6h

AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert[BOT] Thanos$156$2671.71x6h

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified[BOT] Frederick Charles Krueger$156$21.170.14x6h

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert[BOT] Voldemort$156$1971.26x6h

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert[BOT] HAL 9000$156$1370.87x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$156	83.33%	98

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 31.7%restricted 2.0%covert 45.6%rare 0.1%Ancient 0.5%red 3.5%sunny 1.0%covert knife 1.0%pink 5.0%Legendary 9.7%best hit $4,500 (28.78x)