Fight the pandemic

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$0.56

Advertised RTP

82.95%

EV $0.46 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.90%

37.3K openings, odds method

Variance

85.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 19

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

76.82%±23.985,676 openings

7 days

84.16%±10.0732.2K openings

30 days

81.90%±9.3537.3K openings

since tracking started

81.90%±9.3537.3K openings

52.0%76.8%101.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5,676	76.82%±24.0	−0.5σ	odds
7d	32.2K	84.16%±10.1	+0.2σ	odds
30d	37.3K	81.90%±9.35	−0.2σ	odds
All	37.3K	81.90%±9.35	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AUG \| Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$475	10.2%	5	3.7	1.33×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$142	3.1%	1	3.7	0.27×
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$110	2.4%	3	3.7	0.80×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 1,429	$17.44	2.6%	25	26.2	0.95×
MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$14.07	3.0%	28	37.5	0.75×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 200	$5.50	5.9%	176	187.4	0.94×
MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$5.06	5.4%	187	187.4	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$3.53	7.6%	366	374.7	0.98×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 100	$3.27	7.0%	347	374.7	0.93×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$1.71	7.4%	767	749.5	1.02×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$1.28	8.3%	1,116	1124.2	0.99×
AUG \| Random Access (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$0.98	10.5%	1,847	1873.7	0.99×
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$0.46	9.9%	3,755	3747.4	1.00×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$0.35	11.3%	5,629	5621.1	1.00×
SSG 08 \| Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	61.8%	$0.04	5.3%	23,222	23158.9	1.00×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: fight-the-pandemic), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AUG | Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedbi bas emo bn :($0.56$475847.6x1d

AUG | Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedpreeeeeeeeee@!$0.56$475847.6x1d

AUG | Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedRUSH B$0.56$475847.6x2d

AUG | Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedRookie$0.56$475847.6x4d

AUG | Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted[BOT] Anton Chigurh$0.56$475847.6x6d

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertHauler$0.56$142253.6x2d

MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted[BOT] Dr. Evil$0.56$110196.1x9h

MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted我拿AK47突突突你死$0.56$110196.1x22h

MAC-10 | Red Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedlil masterpiec3$0.56$110196.1x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerCorreac$0.56$0.040.07x42s

Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedabd28$0.56$0.460.82x42s

SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerNaruto_LoquillÖ$0.56$0.040.07x1m

SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerweedmonster42069$0.56$0.040.07x1m

MP9 | Modest Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec少女情怀总是诗๑$0.56$0.350.62x1m

SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerSchlub$0.56$0.040.07x1m

SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerCorreac$0.56$0.040.07x1m

SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerSr_CleitinhoF$0.56$0.040.07x1m

MP9 | Modest Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specSchlub$0.56$0.350.62x2m

SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerJ M | レッドワン$0.56$0.040.07x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 82.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$0.56	82.95%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 16.5%covert 0.0%violet 0.1%classified 0.1%Legendary 0.5%#8847ff 1.0%Mythical 5.0%mil spec 15.0%consumer 61.8%best hit $475 (847.6x)