Summer Fun
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$3.99
Advertised RTP
83.20%
EV $3.32 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
73.83%
2,864 openings, odds method
Variance
46.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 47
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,874 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: summer-fun), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.20%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.99 | 83.20% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 5.0%covert 1.1%covert knife 0.2%gold 0.3%classified 5.5%Legendary 2.0%#8847ff 5.9%uncommon 10.0%milspec 20.0%#4b69ff 50.0%best hit $389 (97.50x)