The 100 CS2 Case Skins

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$91.70

Advertised RTP

83.31%

EV $76.40 from 100 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.65%

507 openings, odds method

Variance

2.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.09%±29.82112 openings

7 days

84.33%±17.73317 openings

30 days

79.65%±14.02507 openings

since tracking started

79.65%±14.02507 openings

56.5%87.0%117.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	112	87.09%±29.8	+0.2σ	odds
7d	317	84.33%±17.7	+0.1σ	odds
30d	507	79.65%±14.0	−0.5σ	odds
All	507	79.65%±14.0	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values100 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 507 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$1,424	18.6%	4	5.1	0.79×
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$244	3.2%	3	5.1	0.59×
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$237	3.1%	8	5.1	1.58×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$218	2.9%	5	5.1	0.99×
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 100	$204	2.7%	4	5.1	0.79×
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$197	2.6%	5	5.1	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$192	2.5%	5	5.1	0.99×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$174	2.3%	5	5.1	0.99×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$168	2.2%	1	5.1	0.20×
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$163	2.1%	4	5.1	0.79×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$149	2.0%	9	5.1	1.78×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 100	$144	1.9%	3	5.1	0.59×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$140	1.8%	1	5.1	0.20×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$133	1.7%	8	5.1	1.58×
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$131	1.7%	6	5.1	1.18×
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$120	1.6%	6	5.1	1.18×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$120	1.6%	5	5.1	0.99×
XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$117	1.5%	4	5.1	0.79×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$110	1.4%	6	5.1	1.18×
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$105	1.4%	0	5.1	0.00×
★ Classic Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$103	1.4%	4	5.1	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$101	1.3%	3	5.1	0.59×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$99.23	1.3%	9	5.1	1.78×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$99.13	1.3%	7	5.1	1.38×
★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$98.26	1.3%	7	5.1	1.38×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$94.27	1.2%	13	5.1	2.56×
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$90.83	1.2%	5	5.1	0.99×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$88.28	1.2%	8	5.1	1.58×
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$86.89	1.1%	7	5.1	1.38×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$84.00	1.1%	6	5.1	1.18×
★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$82.02	1.1%	4	5.1	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$80.48	1.1%	4	5.1	0.79×
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$80.16	1.0%	3	5.1	0.59×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$78.89	1.0%	3	5.1	0.59×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$74.52	1.0%	5	5.1	0.99×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$73.30	1.0%	3	5.1	0.59×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$71.86	0.9%	8	5.1	1.58×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$68.32	0.9%	3	5.1	0.59×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$67.94	0.9%	8	5.1	1.58×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$66.68	0.9%	3	5.1	0.59×
FAMAS \| Styx (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$65.54	0.9%	6	5.1	1.18×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$65.47	0.9%	3	5.1	0.59×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$62.12	0.8%	5	5.1	0.99×
P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$60.95	0.8%	5	5.1	0.99×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$57.50	0.8%	5	5.1	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$54.19	0.7%	1	5.1	0.20×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$53.75	0.7%	7	5.1	1.38×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$52.00	0.7%	2	5.1	0.39×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$51.71	0.7%	6	5.1	1.18×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$50.50	0.7%	1	5.1	0.20×
SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$46.36	0.6%	6	5.1	1.18×
AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 100	$45.74	0.6%	6	5.1	1.18×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$45.25	0.6%	6	5.1	1.18×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$44.91	0.6%	5	5.1	0.99×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$44.10	0.6%	3	5.1	0.59×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$42.85	0.6%	6	5.1	1.18×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$40.05	0.5%	9	5.1	1.78×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 100	$38.90	0.5%	7	5.1	1.38×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$38.45	0.5%	5	5.1	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$34.69	0.5%	10	5.1	1.97×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$33.08	0.4%	4	5.1	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$31.29	0.4%	4	5.1	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$30.43	0.4%	5	5.1	0.99×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 100	$27.06	0.4%	6	5.1	1.18×
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$25.21	0.3%	5	5.1	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$24.96	0.3%	1	5.1	0.20×
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$23.96	0.3%	7	5.1	1.38×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$21.17	0.3%	4	5.1	0.79×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$21.09	0.3%	2	5.1	0.39×
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$20.97	0.3%	9	5.1	1.78×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$18.96	0.2%	7	5.1	1.38×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$18.14	0.2%	4	5.1	0.79×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$17.03	0.2%	5	5.1	0.99×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$16.48	0.2%	6	5.1	1.18×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$15.24	0.2%	3	5.1	0.59×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$14.71	0.2%	5	5.1	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$13.03	0.2%	6	5.1	1.18×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$11.88	0.2%	5	5.1	0.99×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$10.49	0.1%	3	5.1	0.59×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$10.11	0.1%	4	5.1	0.79×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$7.59	0.1%	5	5.1	0.99×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$6.54	0.1%	6	5.1	1.18×
Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$6.09	0.1%	8	5.1	1.58×
MP5-SD \| Agent (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$6.08	0.1%	3	5.1	0.59×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$4.77	0.1%	5	5.1	0.99×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$4.62	0.1%	5	5.1	0.99×
MP7 \| Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$4.50	0.1%	4	5.1	0.79×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 100	$3.73	0.0%	7	5.1	1.38×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$3.34	0.0%	3	5.1	0.59×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$2.46	0.0%	3	5.1	0.59×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$2.39	0.0%	4	5.1	0.79×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$1.55	0.0%	2	5.1	0.39×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$1.35	0.0%	5	5.1	0.99×
SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$1.09	0.0%	5	5.1	0.99×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$0.87	0.0%	6	5.1	1.18×
USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.86	0.0%	7	5.1	1.38×
P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 100	$0.61	0.0%	8	5.1	1.58×
MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.40	0.0%	5	5.1	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 100	$0.35	0.0%	4	5.1	0.79×
MAC-10 \| Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 100	$0.07	0.0%	8	5.1	1.58×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: the-100), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classifiedmenglin$91.70$1,42415.53x5h

Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classified[BOT] Agent Smith$91.70$1,42415.53x4d

Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classifiedⅩⅡ$91.70$1,42415.53x6d

Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classified[BOT] T-1000$91.70$1,42415.53x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertFocusBabyHippo$91.70$1101.20x5h

Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffmenglin$91.70$0.350.00x5h

★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knifeFocusBabyHippo$91.70$1031.13x5h

Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classifiedmenglin$91.70$1,42415.53x5h

AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedFocusBabyHippo$91.70$1972.15x5h

SCAR-20 | Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedmenglin$91.70$46.360.51x5h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertSomebody$91.70$1491.63x7h

Galil AR | Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted007$91.70$1201.31x7h

AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified✪ zer0^v^$91.70$1201.30x7h

G3SG1 | Flux (Factory New)weapon · classified[CRP] GeNy$91.70$57.500.63x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.31%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$91.70	83.31%	100

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 26.0%covert 25.0%extraordinary 4.0%red 1.0%restricted 20.0%mil spec 4.0%covert knife 1.0%Ancient 1.0%#d32ce6 1.0%Classified 1.0%Legendary 3.0%Mythical 5.0%pink 3.0%#d32ee6 2.0%Restricted 1.0%#4b69ff 1.0%industrial 1.0%best hit $1,424 (15.53x)