Ice Stone CS2 Skins Collection

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$1.64

Advertised RTP

83.05%

EV $1.36 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d

69.57%

8,441 openings, odds method

Variance

175.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 102

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

48.12%±59.431,905 openings

7 days

70.86%±30.607,184 openings

30 days

69.57%±28.238,441 openings

since tracking started

69.57%±28.238,441 openings

-0.5%53.8%108.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,905	48.12%±59.4	−1.2σ	odds
7d	7,184	70.86%±30.6	−0.8σ	odds
30d	8,441	69.57%±28.2	−0.9σ	odds
All	8,441	69.57%±28.2	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,475 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$1,398	10.3%	1	0.8	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$1,259	9.2%	0	0.8	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 10,000	$1,017	7.5%	0	0.8	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 400	$51.63	9.5%	18	21.2	0.85×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 333	$39.44	8.7%	18	25.4	0.71×
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 250	$20.97	6.2%	38	33.9	1.12×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$6.69	4.9%	92	84.8	1.09×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$6.54	4.8%	82	84.8	0.97×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$6.12	4.5%	97	84.8	1.14×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$5.79	4.3%	84	84.8	0.99×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$5.69	4.2%	88	84.8	1.04×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$4.88	3.6%	90	84.8	1.06×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$3.34	2.5%	91	84.8	1.07×
G3SG1 \| Digital Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 13	$1.05	6.2%	696	678.0	1.03×
M249 \| Deep Relief (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 13	$0.94	5.5%	717	678.0	1.06×
P2000 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$0.41	2.4%	621	678.0	0.92×
MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$0.36	2.1%	671	678.0	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 13	$0.26	1.5%	677	678.0	1.00×
M4A4 \| Mainframe (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLight	1 in 13	$0.08	0.5%	673	678.0	0.99×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$0.07	0.4%	701	678.0	1.03×
SG 553 \| Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 13	$0.07	0.4%	699	678.0	1.03×
M4A4 \| Mainframe (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 13	$0.07	0.4%	690	678.0	1.02×
UMP-45 \| Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · common	10.0%	$0.05	0.4%	812	847.5	0.96×
Five-SeveN \| Coolant (Field-Tested)weapon · #777777	10.0%	$0.03	0.2%	819	849.2	0.96×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: ice-bonanza), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restrictedSellout KoTleTa |$1.64$1,398852.4x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialSchlub$1.64$0.070.04x7m

SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumerBugghappen$1.64$0.070.04x7m

G3SG1 | Digital Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · 1GustaGOD$1.64$1.050.64x10m

SG 553 | Army Sheen (Factory New)weapon · consumerLoosyGoosy$1.64$0.070.04x10m

USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialRe.Emilia$1.64$0.070.04x10m

M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon少女情怀总是诗๑$1.64$0.070.04x13m

M249 | Deep Relief (Field-Tested)weapon · 1big250$1.64$0.940.57x13m

AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedNaruto_LoquillÖ$1.64$6.123.73x15m

P2000 | Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specGustaGOD$1.64$0.410.25x15m

USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialRe.Emilia$1.64$0.070.04x15m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.05%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$1.64	83.05%	24

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 16.0%restricted 3.3%rare 0.0%gold 0.0%classified 1.3%Legendary 3.4%mil spec 16.0%milspec 8.0%blueLight 8.0%industrial 8.0%consumer 8.0%Uncommon 8.0%common 10.0%#777777 10.0%best hit $1,398 (852.4x)