Diamond <3
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$398.14
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $331.78 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.48%
210 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 210 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $5,407 | 16.3% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.43× |
| AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $1,416 | 8.5% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× |
| ★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $1,407 | 12.7% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.79× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 29 | $831 | 8.8% | 6 | 7.4 | 0.82× |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 18 | $591 | 9.8% | 10 | 11.6 | 0.87× |
| AK-47 | X-Ray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $548 | 9.9% | 13 | 12.6 | 1.03× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 13 | $479 | 11.6% | 19 | 16.8 | 1.13× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 13 | $436 | 10.5% | 23 | 16.8 | 1.37× |
| Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 13.0% | $153 | 6.0% | 27 | 27.3 | 0.99× |
| M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $58.76 | 3.5% | 44 | 42.0 | 1.05× |
| Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $26.25 | 2.4% | 58 | 63.0 | 0.92× |
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: dimond), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $398 | 83.33% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 17.0%classified 52.0%covert 27.5%#ffd700 3.5%best hit $5,407 (13.58x)