Hell's Fire
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$70.33
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $58.60 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.12%
2,698 openings, odds method
Variance
21.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 38
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,700 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: hells-fire), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $70.33 | 83.33% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.1%covert 10.3%#ffd700 0.1%extraordinary 1.1%sunny 1.1%restricted 1.0%classified 25.4%Classified 10.0%Mythical 17.0%violet 17.0%#8847ff 17.0%best hit $8,136 (115.7x)