Cold Turkey

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$7.49

Advertised RTP

83.26%

EV $6.24 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.63%

1,862 openings, odds method

Variance

9.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

70.88%±36.78278 openings

7 days

78.22%±15.191,630 openings

30 days

76.63%±14.211,862 openings

since tracking started

76.63%±14.211,862 openings

33.5%71.0%108.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	278	70.88%±36.8	−0.7σ	odds
7d	1,630	78.22%±15.2	−0.7σ	odds
30d	1,862	76.63%±14.2	−0.9σ	odds
All	1,862	76.63%±14.2	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,868 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$766	6.1%	0	0.9	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$500	5.6%	1	1.3	0.76×
★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 286	$90.13	5.1%	4	6.5	0.61×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested)gloves · gold	1 in 200	$64.99	5.2%	5	9.3	0.54×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$51.22	8.2%	23	18.7	1.23×
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 40	$26.08	10.5%	54	46.7	1.16×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$14.17	11.4%	90	93.4	0.96×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	12.0%	$7.47	14.4%	249	224.2	1.11×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	13.0%	$7.06	14.7%	231	242.8	0.95×
MP7 \| Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$4.22	10.2%	279	280.2	1.00×
AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	25.0%	$1.62	6.5%	453	467.0	0.97×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	25.5%	$0.54	2.2%	479	476.9	1.00×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: cold-turkey), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertZeX0r | SkinUp.gg$7.49$50066.77x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareShaktimaan$7.49$1.620.22x19m

AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareAmkaera$7.49$1.620.22x19m

AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted可爱的 ( ^ω^)机灵鬼$7.49$7.060.94x25m

StatTrak™ Nova | Windblown (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil SpecPaula$7.49$0.540.07x25m

AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareNicoBoyzzzz |$7.49$1.620.22x25m

StatTrak™ Nova | Windblown (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil SpecLemon$7.49$0.540.07x25m

AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareNicoBoyzzzz |$7.49$1.620.22x31m

StatTrak™ Nova | Windblown (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec✦ Cuervo™✦ 2.0$7.49$0.540.07x31m

AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareSchlub$7.49$1.620.22x2h

MP7 | Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedljl990608$7.49$4.220.56x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.26%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$7.49	83.26%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.4%covert 0.1%gold 0.5%Ancient 1.0%mil spec 2.5%pink 5.0%restricted 40.0%Rare 25.0%Mil Spec 25.5%best hit $500 (66.77x)