VDN case
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$88.51
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $73.75 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.23%
285 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 297 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: vdn-case), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $88.51 | 83.33% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#eb4b4b 0.2%extraordinary 0.5%covert 24.8%red 12.6%classified 10.0%Ancient 9.0%restricted 14.0%mil spec 14.0%Mythical 15.0%best hit $774 (8.74x)