Lucky 7
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$1,111.00
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $925.84 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
33.77%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $7,431 | 16.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Factory New)gloves · legendary | 1 in 50 | $6,590 | 14.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband | 1 in 50 | $6,104 | 13.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Field-Tested)gloves · epic | 1 in 46 | $4,089 | 9.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 33 | $3,197 | 10.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $2,740 | 8.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $1,768 | 7.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $1,063 | 5.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 13 | $271 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $264 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 60.8% | $146 | 9.6% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.23× |
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: lucky-7), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1,111 | 83.33% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 22.0%legendary 2.0%contraband 2.0%epic 2.2%sunny 3.0%Ancient 8.0%classified 60.8%best hit $1,063 (0.96x)