New Age

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price
$109.98
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $91.65 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.90%
455 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
26 openings · below min
7 days
97.57%±20.24215 openings
30 days
89.90%±13.91455 openings
since tracking started
89.90%±13.91455 openings
19.5%78.5%137.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2678.43%±58.2—odds
7d21597.57%±20.2+1.4σodds
30d45589.90%±13.9+0.9σodds
All45589.90%±13.9+0.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 455 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 1,000$2,2732.5%10.5—
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 800$1,7182.3%00.6—
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 667$1,5302.5%20.7—
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 571$1,2892.5%00.8—
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 333$7532.5%01.40.00×
★ Karambit | Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert1 in 250$6502.8%31.81.65×
★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 222$5912.9%12.00.49×
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 200$5352.9%32.31.32×
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 182$4822.9%52.52.00×
★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 182$4792.9%42.51.60×
Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 167$4422.9%42.71.47×
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 91$3714.5%55.01.00×
AK-47 | Panthera onca (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 91$3674.4%45.00.80×
SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 91$3664.4%75.01.40×
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 83$3524.6%55.50.92×
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 45$1794.3%1410.01.40×
★ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd7001 in 45$1744.2%1010.01.00×
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 40$1433.9%1411.41.23×
AUG | Sand Storm (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 40$1403.8%1411.41.23×
SG 553 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 40$1393.8%1311.41.14×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 33$1013.3%813.70.59×
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 29$94.883.6%1615.91.00×
★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 25$90.944.0%1418.20.77×
AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 17$70.664.6%2227.30.81×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 17$70.364.6%1827.30.66×
M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 13$50.614.4%3936.41.07×
MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 11$33.373.3%4441.91.05×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified10.0%$21.242.3%3845.50.84×
StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified10.0%$12.441.4%5345.51.16×
FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified10.0%$7.560.8%4545.50.99×
MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet10.0%$1.640.2%4945.51.08×
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: new-age), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$11083.33%31
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 5.7%covert 18.9%Covert 0.4%extraordinary 13.3%pink 10.3%gold 1.2%#ffd700 2.2%classified 38.0%violet 10.0%best hit $2,273 (20.67x)