Savage

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$30.00

Advertised RTP

83.33%

EV $25.00 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.87%

970 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

14 openings · below min

7 days

76.72%±8.61803 openings

30 days

77.87%±7.83970 openings

since tracking started

77.87%±7.83970 openings

3.5%69.5%135.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	14	69.48%±65.2	—	odds
7d	803	76.72%±8.61	−1.5σ	odds
30d	970	77.87%±7.83	−1.4σ	odds
All	970	77.87%±7.83	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 970 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$234	18.7%	13	19.4	0.67×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 50	$100	8.0%	13	19.4	0.67×
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$90.83	7.3%	22	19.4	1.13×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$58.97	4.7%	23	19.4	1.19×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$49.93	4.0%	18	19.4	0.93×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	17.3%	$43.68	30.3%	164	168.1	0.98×
P90 \| Sunset Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	18.0%	$19.17	13.8%	196	174.6	1.12×
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	18.0%	$15.49	11.2%	169	174.6	0.97×
Nova \| Koi (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	18.0%	$2.62	1.9%	185	174.6	1.06×
P90 \| Ash Wood (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	18.7%	$0.26	0.2%	167	181.1	0.92×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: savage), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialSomebody$30.00$43.681.46x5h

P90 | Sunset Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial007$30.00$19.170.64x5h

Nova | Koi (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted✪ zer0^v^$30.00$2.620.09x5h

AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial[CRP] GeNy$30.00$43.681.46x5h

MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specSomebody$30.00$15.490.52x5h

P90 | Ash Wood (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon007$30.00$0.260.01x5h

P90 | Sunset Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial✪ zer0^v^$30.00$19.170.64x5h

P90 | Sunset Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial[CRP] GeNy$30.00$19.170.64x5h

AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial[BOT] Thanos$30.00$43.681.46x12h

Nova | Koi (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted[BOT] Voldemort$30.00$2.620.09x12h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$30.00	83.33%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 6.0%red 2.0%classified 2.0%industrial 35.3%mil spec 18.0%restricted 18.0%Uncommon 18.7%best hit —