Infection
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$6.30
Advertised RTP
83.28%
EV $5.25 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.45%
1,950 openings, odds method
Variance
9.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 41
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,957 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: infection), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.28%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.30 | 83.28% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.3%restricted 0.1%classified 1.1%#ffd700 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%covert knife 0.3%sunny 0.4%#4b69ff 1.0%Legendary 1.2%Mythical 2.0%mil spec 44.3%#8847ff 5.0%uncommon 9.0%Rare 16.0%gray 18.0%best hit $330 (52.38x)