Rainsonic

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$321.00

Advertised RTP

83.32%

EV $267.46 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

73.06%

226 openings, odds method

Variance

3.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

53 openings · below min

30 days

73.06%±24.69226 openings

since tracking started

73.06%±24.69226 openings

-0.5%163.3%327.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	63.68%±262.5	—	odds
7d	53	87.05%±51.0	—	odds
30d	226	73.06%±24.7	−0.8σ	odds
All	226	73.06%±24.7	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 227 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$12.7K	4.8%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 455	$4,800	3.9%	0	0.5	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$3,100	5.8%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$2,400	9.0%	3	2.3	1.32×
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$2,000	7.5%	4	2.3	1.76×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$1,700	6.4%	3	2.3	1.32×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$700	2.6%	1	2.3	0.44×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50	$590	4.4%	2	4.5	0.44×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 50	$550	4.1%	9	4.5	1.98×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$520	3.9%	2	4.5	0.44×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 48	$450	3.5%	3	4.7	0.64×
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$375	7.0%	9	11.3	0.79×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20	$360	6.7%	10	11.3	0.88×
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$255	4.8%	3	11.3	0.26×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$250	4.7%	12	11.3	1.06×
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$185	3.5%	11	11.3	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$175	3.3%	11	11.3	0.97×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$135	2.5%	7	11.3	0.62×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$120	2.2%	9	11.3	0.79×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$120	2.2%	12	11.3	1.06×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$115	2.1%	19	11.3	1.67×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$93.00	1.7%	8	11.3	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$55.00	1.0%	13	11.3	1.15×
Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$37.00	0.7%	9	11.3	0.79×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$33.83	0.6%	16	11.3	1.41×
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$22.00	0.4%	15	11.3	1.32×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$14.00	0.3%	14	13.6	1.03×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$13.00	0.3%	22	13.9	1.59×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: rainsonic), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.