Dragon Lair Case
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$41.24
Advertised RTP
80.82%
EV $33.33 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.68%
928 openings, odds method
Variance
23.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 928 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: dragon-lair), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 80.82%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $41.24 | 80.82% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.3%covert 0.5%classified 14.2%epic 0.2%restricted 15.9%mil spec 1.1%industrial 11.4%#4b69ff 0.7%Restricted 0.8%violet 1.0%Consumer Grade 1.5%Rare 22.5%consumer 30.0%best hit $9,738 (236.1x)