Fracture Case CS2 (CSGO)
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$4.53
Advertised RTP
83.21%
EV $3.77 from 62 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.78%
4,957 openings, odds method
Variance
6.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values62 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,966 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: fracture-case), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.21%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.53 | 83.21% | 62 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 10.0%knifes 0.0%covert 0.1%covert knife 0.5%gold 0.1%epic 0.0%Covert 0.0%Immortal 0.1%Ancient 0.0%Legendary 2.5%violet 5.0%Restricted 5.0%Mythical 12.0%#8847ff 7.0%#4b69ff 28.7%Rare 9.0%milspec 9.0%blue 11.0%best hit $245 (54.19x)