Dreams & Nightmares Case CS2 (CSGO)
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$3.81
Advertised RTP
83.15%
EV $3.17 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.54%
5,784 openings, odds method
Variance
32.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 66
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,793 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: dreams-nightmares-case), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.15%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.81 | 83.15% | 47 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.4%gold 0.2%covert knife 0.1%sunny 0.1%Covert 0.0%Immortal 0.2%red 0.0%rare 0.1%classified 0.3%Legendary 0.5%Mythical 1.2%Restricted 2.5%#8847ff 6.0%violet 4.0%milspec 10.0%Rare 44.0%blue 30.5%best hit $346 (90.93x)