Skinsmonkey case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$21.66

Advertised RTP

83.33%

EV $18.05 from 127 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.04%

1,872 openings, odds method

Variance

3.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

104.31%±31.52129 openings

7 days

101.44%±10.641,184 openings

30 days

97.04%±8.491,872 openings

since tracking started

97.04%±8.491,872 openings

72.0%104.3%136.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 85.50% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (88.55% – 105.52%, 1,872 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	129	104.31%±31.5	+1.3σ	odds
7d	1,184	101.44%±10.6	+3.0σ	odds
30d	1,872	97.04%±8.49	+2.7σ	odds
All	1,872	97.04%±8.49	+2.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values127 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,872 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$537	3.0%	4	1.9	2.14×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$480	2.7%	4	1.9	2.14×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$321	1.8%	1	1.9	0.53×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 1,000	$268	1.5%	3	1.9	1.60×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$251	1.4%	3	1.9	1.60×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$241	1.3%	3	1.9	1.60×
USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$228	1.3%	2	1.9	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$197	1.1%	2	1.9	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Brass (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$197	1.1%	4	1.9	2.14×
USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$186	1.0%	0	1.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$182	1.0%	0	1.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$166	0.9%	2	1.9	1.07×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$164	0.9%	2	1.9	1.07×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$156	0.9%	1	1.9	0.53×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$156	0.9%	2	1.9	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$148	0.8%	5	1.9	2.67×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$147	0.8%	4	1.9	2.14×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 1,000	$138	0.8%	0	1.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$137	0.8%	1	1.9	0.53×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$134	0.7%	2	1.9	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 1,000	$134	0.7%	1	1.9	0.53×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$132	7.3%	26	18.7	1.39×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$129	0.7%	2	1.9	1.07×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$128	0.7%	1	1.9	0.53×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$126	0.7%	2	1.9	1.07×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,000	$118	0.7%	5	1.9	2.67×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,000	$116	0.6%	3	1.9	1.60×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$115	0.6%	2	1.9	1.07×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$109	0.6%	8	1.9	4.27×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,000	$108	0.6%	1	1.9	0.53×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$105	0.6%	1	1.9	0.53×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$104	0.6%	3	1.9	1.60×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$104	0.6%	2	1.9	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$103	0.6%	1	1.9	0.53×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$103	0.6%	2	1.9	1.07×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$102	0.6%	2	1.9	1.07×
P2000 \| Silver (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,000	$97.95	0.5%	4	1.9	2.14×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$96.74	0.5%	2	1.9	1.07×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$92.57	0.5%	1	1.9	0.53×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$90.27	0.5%	1	1.9	0.53×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$88.98	0.5%	1	1.9	0.53×
P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$86.20	0.5%	2	1.9	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$84.82	0.5%	2	1.9	1.07×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$83.78	0.5%	2	1.9	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$78.42	0.4%	5	1.9	2.67×
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$76.27	0.4%	1	1.9	0.53×
USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$74.24	0.4%	2	1.9	1.07×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$71.87	0.4%	2	1.9	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$71.42	0.4%	0	1.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$67.83	0.4%	0	1.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$61.87	0.3%	1	1.9	0.53×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$57.43	0.3%	6	1.9	3.21×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,000	$57.20	0.3%	1	1.9	0.53×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,000	$55.99	0.3%	0	1.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Road Rash (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$54.66	0.3%	1	1.9	0.53×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$54.61	0.3%	0	1.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$53.64	0.3%	3	1.9	1.60×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 1,000	$52.47	0.3%	0	1.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,000	$51.67	0.3%	7	1.9	3.74×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,000	$51.01	0.3%	3	1.9	1.60×
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,000	$50.34	0.3%	1	1.9	0.53×
USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,000	$50.29	0.3%	4	1.9	2.14×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$50.15	0.3%	2	1.9	1.07×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 1,000	$49.87	0.3%	1	1.9	0.53×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$46.87	0.3%	3	1.9	1.60×
P2000 \| Silver (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,000	$43.86	0.2%	2	1.9	1.07×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$42.07	0.2%	1	1.9	0.53×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 1,000	$38.30	0.2%	1	1.9	0.53×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$35.59	0.2%	4	1.9	2.14×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$33.57	0.2%	0	1.9	0.00×
P250 \| Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$33.44	0.2%	2	1.9	1.07×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$31.31	0.2%	3	1.9	1.60×
Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 100	$29.03	1.6%	13	18.7	0.69×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$28.62	1.6%	21	18.7	1.12×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 100	$28.22	1.6%	17	18.7	0.91×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$27.45	1.5%	18	18.7	0.96×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$27.41	1.5%	20	18.7	1.07×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$26.53	1.5%	16	18.7	0.85×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$26.11	1.4%	13	18.7	0.69×
P2000 \| Pathfinder (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 100	$25.36	1.4%	24	18.7	1.28×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$24.73	1.4%	23	18.7	1.23×
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 100	$24.17	1.3%	13	18.7	0.69×
P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$24.05	1.3%	18	18.7	0.96×
USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 100	$23.97	1.3%	17	18.7	0.91×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$22.61	1.3%	25	18.7	1.34×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$21.77	1.2%	12	18.7	0.64×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$21.56	1.2%	18	18.7	0.96×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$21.36	1.2%	22	18.7	1.18×
Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 100	$21.10	1.2%	18	18.7	0.96×
P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 100	$20.91	1.2%	21	18.7	1.12×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$20.83	1.2%	17	18.7	0.91×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$20.00	1.1%	15	18.7	0.80×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$18.80	1.0%	18	18.7	0.96×
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$18.75	1.0%	24	18.7	1.28×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$18.40	1.0%	16	18.7	0.85×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$17.22	1.0%	20	18.7	1.07×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$16.24	0.9%	14	18.7	0.75×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$14.77	0.8%	20	18.7	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$13.97	0.8%	23	18.7	1.23×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$13.70	0.8%	13	18.7	0.69×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$13.11	0.7%	23	18.7	1.23×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$12.25	0.7%	13	18.7	0.69×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$12.08	0.7%	18	18.7	0.96×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$12.05	0.7%	12	18.7	0.64×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$10.07	0.6%	15	18.7	0.80×
Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$9.45	0.5%	18	18.7	0.96×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$9.43	0.5%	23	18.7	1.23×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$9.42	0.5%	26	18.7	1.39×
P2000 \| Coach Class (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 100	$8.08	0.4%	19	18.7	1.01×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$8.03	0.4%	24	18.7	1.28×
USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$7.93	0.4%	21	18.7	1.12×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$7.67	0.4%	25	18.7	1.34×
USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 100	$7.61	0.4%	20	18.7	1.07×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$7.60	0.4%	20	18.7	1.07×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$7.31	0.4%	15	18.7	0.80×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 67	$6.53	0.5%	25	28.1	0.89×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$5.44	0.5%	35	28.1	1.25×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 67	$5.30	0.4%	25	28.1	0.89×
P2000 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 67	$5.00	0.4%	28	28.1	1.00×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 67	$4.37	0.4%	27	28.1	0.96×
Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$3.26	0.4%	43	37.4	1.15×
Glock-18 \| Night (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 50	$2.42	0.3%	34	37.4	0.91×
P2000 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 33	$2.29	0.4%	54	56.2	0.96×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 29	$2.16	0.4%	58	65.5	0.89×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$1.64	0.4%	89	84.2	1.06×
P2000 \| Ivory (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 18	$0.79	0.2%	87	103.0	0.84×
Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	20.9%	$0.04	0.0%	388	391.2	0.99×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: skinsmonkey-case), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covertonlyfans.com/Seyden$21.66$53724.77x6h

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covertBorz$21.66$53724.77x1d

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covertBuDdEr.$20.99$53725.56x4d

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert[BOT] John Doe$20.99$53725.56x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ USP-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedSixBee$21.66$12.080.56x1h

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedSTINYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY$21.66$1.640.08x1h

P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified★NINJA1999★$21.66$24.051.11x1h

Glock-18 | Groundwater (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialSixBee$21.66$21.100.97x1h

Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specSTINYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY$21.66$3.260.15x1h

USP-S | Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec★NINJA1999★$21.66$13.700.63x1h

USP-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLanowy Miłosz$21.66$4.370.20x2h

Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumersupper817$21.66$0.040.00x2h

Glock-18 | Groundwater (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialForelleS$21.66$21.100.97x2h

Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryFox$21.66$24.731.14x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:16 UTC	$21.66	83.33%	127
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$20.99	85.99%	127

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.0%red 0.3%classified 20.2%restricted 12.2%Covert 0.3%#eb4b4b 0.2%mil spec 4.4%#8847ff 1.6%pink 2.1%Ancient 0.1%Legendary 6.6%Classified 0.1%industrial 4.0%#d32ee6 2.0%blue 2.5%Uncommon 1.0%violet 2.5%#4b69ff 4.5%Industrial Grade 2.0%Mythical 3.0%Rare 5.5%consumer 20.9%best hit $537 (24.77x)