Ballerina Cappuccina
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$20.00
Advertised RTP
83.33%
EV $16.67 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.98%
1,874 openings, odds method
Variance
28.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 46
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,874 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: ballerina-cappuccina), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.00 | 83.33% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 1.3%epic 0.1%restricted 7.1%Mythical 5.1%classified 18.5%Classified 5.0%Legendary 5.0%#8847ff 47.3%mil spec 10.5%best hit $4,711 (235.5x)