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Overpass

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price
$29.00
Advertised RTP
82.96%
EV $24.06 from 78 items
Observed RTP, 30d
76.98%
861 openings, odds method
Variance
4.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
60 openings · below min
7 days
76.52%±13.91789 openings
30 days
76.98%±13.31861 openings
since tracking started
76.98%±13.31861 openings
60.0%111.0%162.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h60110.90%±50.4—odds
7d78976.52%±13.9−0.9σodds
30d86176.98%±13.3−0.9σodds
All86176.98%±13.3−0.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values78 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 871 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary1 in 1,000$1,3665.7%00.9—
AK-47 | B the Monster (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 667$5123.2%01.30.00×
AWP | Crakow! (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 400$2963.1%42.21.84×
AK-47 | B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 400$2692.8%22.20.92×
Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 100$2058.5%88.70.92×
AK-47 | B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 400$2012.1%02.20.00×
AK-47 | B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare1 in 133$1223.8%96.51.38×
AWP | Crakow! (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare1 in 80$1035.3%1310.91.19×
Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare1 in 67$89.905.6%1513.11.15×
AWP | Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 50$50.664.2%2317.41.32×
AWP | Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare1 in 25$34.765.8%3234.80.92×
Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce61 in 25$33.865.6%3234.80.92×
AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)weapon · uncommon1 in 25$32.525.4%2934.80.83×
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)weapon · uncommon1 in 25$30.235.0%2634.80.75×
XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)weapon · uncommon1 in 25$29.304.9%3434.80.98×
Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 25$27.494.6%3734.81.06×
AWP | Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon1 in 25$27.304.5%3534.81.00×
Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 25$22.173.7%3734.81.06×
AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 20$12.952.7%5443.51.24×
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 20$12.752.6%4343.50.99×
XM1014 | Monster Melt (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 22$12.752.5%3740.50.91×
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 20$10.072.1%4543.51.03×
AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 20$5.101.1%4943.51.13×
XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 20$5.101.1%3843.50.87×
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon1 in 20$5.051.0%3843.50.87×
Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 461$4.370.0%11.90.53×
AUG | Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 20$4.360.9%3643.50.83×
XM1014 | Monster Melt (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 20$4.320.9%4243.50.96×
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 20$4.250.9%6043.51.38×
Desert Eagle | Tilted (Factory New)weapon · blueLight1 in 461$4.110.0%01.90.00×
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 461$3.790.0%01.90.00×
Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 461$3.610.0%21.91.06×
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon1 in 461$3.240.0%11.90.53×
XM1014 | Monster Melt (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 461$3.140.0%11.90.53×
AUG | Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 461$3.090.0%21.91.06×
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 461$2.010.0%41.92.12×
Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 461$1.690.0%01.90.00×
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 461$1.680.0%21.91.06×
Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 461$1.580.0%11.90.53×
M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 461$1.440.0%01.90.00×
Desert Eagle | Tilted (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 461$1.080.0%21.91.06×
Negev | Wall Bang (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 461$0.840.0%41.92.12×
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 461$0.780.0%21.91.06×
Nova | Wurst Hölle (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 461$0.770.0%11.90.53×
Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 461$0.750.0%11.90.53×
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 461$0.750.0%01.90.00×
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 461$0.670.0%21.91.06×
P90 | Wash me (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 461$0.670.0%31.91.59×
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 461$0.560.0%51.92.65×
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 461$0.550.0%11.90.53×
Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 461$0.540.0%21.91.06×
Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 461$0.500.0%31.91.59×
Nova | Wurst Hölle (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 461$0.490.0%41.92.12×
Desert Eagle | Tilted (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight1 in 461$0.480.0%41.92.12×
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 461$0.440.0%11.90.53×
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 461$0.430.0%21.91.06×
Nova | Wurst Hölle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 461$0.430.0%31.91.59×
M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 461$0.420.0%21.91.06×
Desert Eagle | Tilted (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d91 in 461$0.300.0%21.91.06×
M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 461$0.300.0%11.90.53×
P90 | Wash me (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 461$0.290.0%31.91.59×
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 461$0.280.0%41.92.12×
Negev | Wall Bang (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 461$0.280.0%21.91.06×
MP5-SD | Neon Squeezer (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d91 in 461$0.230.0%21.91.06×
M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 461$0.210.0%01.90.00×
M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 461$0.190.0%31.91.59×
Desert Eagle | Tilted (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight1 in 461$0.170.0%21.91.06×
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d91 in 461$0.170.0%21.91.06×
P90 | Wash me (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d91 in 461$0.170.0%11.90.53×
Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight1 in 461$0.170.0%01.90.00×
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon1 in 461$0.130.0%01.90.00×
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 461$0.130.0%01.90.00×
MP5-SD | Neon Squeezer (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 461$0.120.0%51.92.65×
P90 | Wash me (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 461$0.110.0%51.92.65×
P90 | Wash me (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 461$0.110.0%11.90.53×
Negev | Wall Bang (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 461$0.110.0%21.91.06×
MP5-SD | Neon Squeezer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d91 in 461$0.100.0%01.90.00×
Negev | Wall Bang (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 461$0.100.0%21.91.06×
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: overpass), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6[BOT] Thanos$29.00$33.861.17x
Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink[BOT] Voldemort$29.00$22.170.76x
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommonQ群124210043$29.00$4.250.15x
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical[BOT] Darth Vader$29.00$12.750.44x
AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical[BOT] Mr. Blonde$29.00$12.950.45x
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon[BOT] Magneto$29.00$5.050.17x
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Factory New)weapon · Rare[BOT] Voldemort$29.00$10.070.35x
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon[BOT] Hans Landa$29.00$5.050.17x
XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested)weapon · violetCode Tarkox$29.00$5.100.18x
XM1014 | Monster Melt (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted[BOT] Darth Vader$29.00$12.750.44x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 82.96%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$29.0082.96%78
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%Ancient 0.1%rare 9.0%covert 0.3%pink 6.0%#d32ce6 4.0%uncommon 35.2%Mythical 10.0%restricted 9.9%Rare 5.4%violet 10.2%milspec 2.0%blueLight 0.9%blue 0.7%industrial 2.0%Uncommon 0.9%#5e98d9 2.4%#4b69ff 1.1%best hit —