Heavens

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price
$49.96
Advertised RTP
83.32%
EV $41.63 from 39 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.98%
509 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
32.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
77.60%±9.40232 openings
7 days
77.47%±6.86436 openings
30 days
77.98%±6.34509 openings
since tracking started
77.98%±6.34509 openings
67.5%77.5%87.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h23277.60%±9.40−1.2σodds
7d43677.47%±6.86−1.7σodds
30d50977.98%±6.34−1.7σodds
All50977.98%±6.34−1.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 509 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 100,000$3,1660.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100,000$1,5730.0%00.0—
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 100,000$1,2710.0%00.0—
M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$9500.1%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 20,000$9090.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 20,000$9050.1%00.0—
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 20,000$8070.1%00.0—
★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 20,000$6780.1%00.0—
★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 20,000$5510.1%00.0—
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 20,000$4810.1%00.0—
AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$4690.1%00.1—
★ Talon Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 10,000$4250.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 10,000$4050.1%00.1—
M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$3230.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 10,000$3150.1%00.1—
USP-S | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 2,000$2930.4%00.3—
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 2,000$2920.4%00.3—
★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 2,000$2740.3%00.3—
★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 1,000$2670.6%00.5—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,000$2420.6%10.5—
USP-S | Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 658$1920.7%10.8—
★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 200$1782.1%12.50.39×
★ Falchion Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 100$1303.1%55.10.98×
★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 100$1263.0%25.10.39×
USP-S | Road Rash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 100$1253.0%55.10.98×
P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 100$95.072.3%55.10.98×
AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 50$77.543.7%1110.21.08×
USP-S | Road Rash (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 50$74.063.6%810.20.79×
P250 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 33$65.014.7%1715.31.11×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 33$64.244.6%1415.30.92×
P250 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 33$62.284.5%715.30.46×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 14$54.569.2%3335.60.93×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 14$52.948.9%4035.61.12×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 14$51.228.6%4235.61.18×
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted10.0%$40.369.7%5350.91.04×
MP7 | Whiteout (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff10.0%$28.466.8%4750.90.92×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified10.0%$27.846.7%4750.90.92×
MP7 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade10.0%$25.966.2%4950.90.96×
Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical20.9%$9.935.0%121106.41.14×
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: heavens), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.32%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$49.9683.32%39
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedsunny 0.0%covert 4.3%gold 1.1%classified 24.3%covert knife 0.5%restricted 13.0%mil spec 1.0%red 2.0%blue 3.0%milspec 3.0%Ancient 7.0%#4b69ff 10.0%Mil Spec Grade 10.0%Mythical 20.9%best hit —