Half Life 3
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$10.00
Advertised RTP
83.32%
EV $8.33 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.79%
1,251 openings, odds method
Variance
21.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 49
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,251 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: half-life-3), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.32%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.00 | 83.32% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.3%covert 0.5%pink 0.6%#d32ee6 2.1%industrial 4.0%Mythical 9.0%Legendary 4.5%restricted 15.1%Common 9.0%#8847ff 9.0%violet 9.0%milspec 9.0%#4b69ff 9.0%Uncommon 9.0%best hit $763 (76.33x)