Secret Collection
A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.
Price
$20.00
Advertised RTP
83.24%
EV $16.65 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.72%
1,160 openings, odds method
Variance
56.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,163 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
daddyskins:graphql case(slug: secret-collection), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.24%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.00 | 83.24% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.3%epic 0.1%classified 43.2%restricted 8.4%uncommon 15.0%#8847ff 15.0%mil spec 15.0%best hit $4,776 (238.8x)