Team Spirit

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price
$45.37
Advertised RTP
83.31%
EV $37.80 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.17%
336 openings, odds method
Variance
26.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
21 openings · below min
7 days
63.89%±59.08293 openings
30 days
65.17%±55.17336 openings
since tracking started
65.17%±55.17336 openings
-0.5%139.0%278.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2157.20%±220.7—odds
7d29363.89%±59.1−0.6σodds
30d33665.17%±55.2−0.6σodds
All33665.17%±55.2−0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 336 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$12.3K3.3%00.0—
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$11.5K3.0%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 5,000$7,8004.1%00.1—
M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband1 in 5,000$7,3003.9%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 5,000$2,3501.2%00.1—
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 5,000$8000.4%00.1—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,000$6900.9%00.2—
★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,000$6500.9%00.2—
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,000$6000.8%00.2—
AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$5200.7%10.2—
★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,000$3250.9%00.3—
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 500$2751.5%10.7—
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 500$2751.5%10.7—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 500$2751.5%00.7—
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 100$2506.6%23.40.60×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50$21011.1%56.70.74×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 20$85.0011.2%1516.80.89×
MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 14$70.0013.0%1923.50.81×
MP9 | Latte Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink28.5%$30.0022.6%11295.81.17×
MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary55.5%$7.5011.0%180186.50.97×
Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: team-spirit), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.31%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$45.3783.31%20
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 8.6%extraordinary 0.1%contraband 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.2%Ancient 7.0%pink 28.5%Legendary 55.5%best hit $520 (11.46x)