IEM Cologne Major 2026

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$30.00

Advertised RTP

83.28%

EV $24.98 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.95%

412 openings, odds method

Variance

7.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

9 openings · below min

7 days

67.51%±31.57293 openings

30 days

77.95%±26.62412 openings

since tracking started

77.95%±26.62412 openings

-0.5%118.0%236.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	9	55.56%±180.1	—	odds
7d	293	67.51%±31.6	−1.0σ	odds
30d	412	77.95%±26.6	−0.4σ	odds
All	412	77.95%±26.6	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 412 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · knifes	1 in 2,000	$2,300	4.6%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,800	3.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,050	2.1%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 1,000	$860	3.4%	0	0.4	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$420	3.4%	1	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$330	4.0%	1	1.2	0.81×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$220	2.6%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$180	7.2%	10	4.1	2.43×
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$155	6.2%	2	4.1	0.49×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$100	4.0%	7	4.1	1.70×
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 100	$76.00	3.0%	8	4.1	1.94×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 36	$60.00	6.6%	11	11.3	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$48.00	5.8%	17	12.4	1.38×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 11	$30.00	10.8%	32	37.1	0.86×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$23.00	9.2%	33	41.2	0.80×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.0%	$15.00	6.0%	34	41.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$12.00	7.2%	51	61.8	0.83×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	15.0%	$8.00	4.8%	65	61.8	1.05×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	30.2%	$4.50	5.4%	140	124.4	1.13×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: iem-cologne-major-2026), 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified[BOT] Voldemort$30.00$23.000.77x6h

StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified[BOT] Bane$30.00$23.000.77x6h

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified[BOT] Hans Landa$30.00$15.000.50x6h

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary[BOT] T-1000$30.00$4.500.15x6h

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary[BOT] John Doe$30.00$30.001.00x6h

FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkDave$30.00$8.000.27x6h

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendarycode arc1xi$30.00$30.001.00x19h

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedcode arc1xi$30.00$12.000.40x19h

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendarycode arc1xi$30.00$4.500.15x19h

FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink[BOT] King Joffrey$30.00$8.000.27x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.28%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$30.00	83.28%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedknifes 0.1%covert 1.4%Covert 0.1%extraordinary 0.5%classified 24.0%pink 16.0%#d32ee6 1.0%red 2.8%Legendary 39.2%restricted 15.0%best hit —