Bounty S2 2026

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

Price

$40.00

Advertised RTP

83.33%

EV $33.33 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.01%

4,052 openings, odds method

Variance

12.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 28

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

99.56%±22.13993 openings

7 days

91.23%±12.762,989 openings

30 days

86.01%±10.964,052 openings

since tracking started

86.01%±10.964,052 openings

74.5%98.5%122.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	993	99.56%±22.1	+1.4σ	odds
7d	2,989	91.23%±12.8	+1.2σ	odds
30d	4,052	86.01%±11.0	+0.5σ	odds
All	4,052	86.01%±11.0	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,052 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$3,750	3.4%	2	1.2	1.65×
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$3,100	4.7%	3	2.0	1.48×
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,900	5.7%	3	4.1	0.74×
★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$1,370	4.1%	7	4.1	1.73×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$1,240	5.6%	4	6.1	0.66×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 500	$900	5.4%	10	8.1	1.23×
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$450	2.7%	9	8.1	1.11×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 333	$355	3.2%	12	12.2	0.99×
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 250	$340	4.1%	13	16.2	0.80×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 100	$205	6.2%	35	40.5	0.86×
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$195	5.9%	41	40.5	1.01×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 77	$155	6.0%	46	52.7	0.87×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 71	$94.00	3.9%	56	56.7	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$58.00	4.8%	137	112.2	1.22×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$55.00	5.0%	115	121.6	0.95×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$45.00	6.8%	181	202.6	0.89×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$38.00	6.3%	211	222.9	0.95×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)weapon · classified	12.0%	$24.00	8.6%	495	486.2	1.02×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$7.00	3.2%	632	607.8	1.04×
MAC-10 \| Allure (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	15.5%	$5.00	2.3%	657	628.1	1.05×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	35.0%	$2.20	2.3%	1,383	1418.2	0.98×

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from daddyskins:graphql case(slug: blast-bounty-summer-2026), 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary[BOT] Max Cady$40.00$3,75093.75x6d

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary[BOT] The Joker$40.00$3,75093.75x6d

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified[BOT] Alonzo Harris$40.00$3,10077.50x6h

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified[BOT] T-1000$40.00$3,10077.50x7h

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified[BOT] Sauron$40.00$3,10077.50x6d

AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert[BOT] Bane$40.00$1,90047.50x7h

AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert[BOT] Frederick Charles Krueger$40.00$1,90047.50x9h

AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert[BOT] HAL 9000$40.00$1,90047.50x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary[BOT] Darth Vader$40.00$1,37034.25x9h

★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary[BOT] Anton Chigurh$40.00$1,37034.25x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted[BOT] Sauron$40.00$7.000.18x2h

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted[BOT] The Joker$40.00$55.001.38x2h

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted[BOT] HAL 9000$40.00$2.200.06x2h

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted[BOT] John Doe$40.00$2.200.06x2h

MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)weapon · Mythical[BOT] Frederick Charles Krueger$40.00$5.000.13x2h

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted火锅锅$40.00$2.200.06x2h

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted[BOT] Anton Chigurh$40.00$7.000.18x2h

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified[BOT] Mr. Blonde$40.00$45.001.13x2h

MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New)weapon · classified[BOT] The Joker$40.00$24.000.60x2h

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted[BOT] Thanos$40.00$2.200.06x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.33%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$40.00	83.33%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.3%classified 22.6%covert 7.6%Ancient 1.0%restricted 53.0%Mythical 15.5%best hit $3,750 (93.75x)