AMBER-FADE
A case on DROP.SKIN (bestseller), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$3.40
Advertised RTP
90.40%
EV $3.07 from 52 items
Observed RTP, 30d
64.37%
1,340 openings, odds method
Variance
8.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 26
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.71% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (48.65% – 80.08%, 1,340 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,340 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/amber-fade/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $3.40 | 90.40% | 52 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $3.40 | 93.05% | 52 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $3.40 | 91.64% | 52 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $3.40 | 89.78% | 52 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $3.40 | 89.94% | 52 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $3.40 | 90.20% | 52 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $3.40 | 89.72% | 52 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $3.40 | 88.94% | 52 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $3.40 | 89.97% | 52 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $3.40 | 89.56% | 52 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%Classified 1.0%restricted 11.2%classified 3.3%pink 1.6%industrial 1.2%#d32ee6 0.7%Restricted 0.8%Consumer Grade 7.9%mil spec 19.0%Rare 10.1%#8847ff 8.9%Mil Spec Grade 2.5%Legendary 3.3%Uncommon 4.5%milspec 13.3%#4b69ff 8.2%blue 2.1%best hit —