CHROMA
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$4.20
Advertised RTP
87.30%
EV $3.67 from 47 items
Observed RTP, 30d
61.01%
40 openings, odds method
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 40 openings and 7.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/chroma/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.30%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $4.20 | 87.30% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $4.20 | 94.90% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $4.20 | 96.60% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $4.20 | 97.77% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $4.20 | 95.80% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $4.20 | 97.90% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $4.20 | 92.78% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $4.20 | 92.72% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $4.20 | 96.41% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $4.20 | 91.89% | 47 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 0.3%covert 0.2%gold 0.3%classified 6.8%#d32ee6 0.7%Classified 0.2%mil spec 19.4%#4b69ff 0.8%Restricted 1.2%#8847ff 13.6%restricted 14.0%Mil Spec Grade 4.7%Mythical 4.2%Consumer Grade 8.7%violet 4.4%blue 4.5%Common 4.5%industrial 4.5%Industrial 3.5%Rare 3.5%best hit —