CLUTCH
A case on DROP.SKIN (cs2), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$0.60
Advertised RTP
159.61%
EV $0.96 from 58 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.34%
16.7K openings, odds method
Variance
78.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 35
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 158.59% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (87.33% – 113.35%, 16,748 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values58 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/clutch/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 159.61%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $0.60 | 159.61% | 58 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $0.60 | 158.62% | 58 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.60 | 149.11% | 58 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.60 | 167.58% | 58 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $0.60 | 159.07% | 58 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $0.60 | 165.47% | 58 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $0.60 | 156.91% | 58 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $0.60 | 150.88% | 58 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $0.60 | 148.35% | 58 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $0.60 | 154.57% | 58 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 4.0%extraordinary 0.2%covert 0.1%restricted 1.9%blue 0.2%Restricted 2.3%Classified 0.3%Legendary 0.3%violet 5.9%#d32ce6 0.4%classified 0.8%Industrial Grade 1.0%milspec 21.0%mil spec 6.8%#8847ff 1.1%Mil Spec Grade 35.7%Mythical 1.8%Rare 0.6%Consumer Grade 10.0%Mil Spec 5.5%best hit —