ILLUSION
A case on DROP.SKIN (knives), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$24.73
Advertised RTP
92.61%
EV $22.90 from 46 items
Observed RTP, 30d
67.42%
87 openings, odds method
Variance
5.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 87 openings and 5.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 87 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/illusion/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.61%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $24.73 | 92.61% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $24.73 | 91.27% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $24.73 | 91.59% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $24.73 | 90.02% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $24.73 | 89.65% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $24.73 | 89.43% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $24.73 | 88.99% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $24.73 | 90.88% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $24.73 | 90.76% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $24.73 | 89.20% | 46 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 14.3%gold 0.1%red 0.8%Ancient 0.9%restricted 8.0%classified 39.0%industrial 8.0%#d32ee6 10.0%milspec 19.0%best hit —