KNIVES

A case on DROP.SKIN (rarity), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

Price

$199.99

Advertised RTP

60.01%

EV $120.01 from 99 items

Observed RTP, 30d

35.39%

8 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

6 openings · below min

30 days

8 openings · below min

since tracking started

8 openings · below min

-0.5%61.5%123.5%

Small sample. 8 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	6	38.87%±84.0	—	odds
30d	8	35.39%±73.3	—	odds
All	8	35.39%±73.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values99 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 114	$1,303	9.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 98	$1,122	9.5%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 88	$1,002	9.5%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,998	$905	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,945	$881	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,726	$782	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,722	$780	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 1,719	$779	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,682	$762	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,648	$746	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,502	$681	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,480	$670	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,418	$642	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,405	$637	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 1,389	$629	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,383	$626	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,224	$554	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 1,092	$495	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,065	$483	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 1,026	$465	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 1,013	$459	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 964	$437	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 961	$436	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 923	$418	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 922	$418	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 914	$414	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 892	$404	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 879	$398	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 859	$389	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 829	$376	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 818	$371	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 782	$354	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · knifes	1 in 748	$339	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 727	$329	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 696	$316	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 693	$314	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 692	$314	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 682	$309	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 666	$302	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 633	$287	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 606	$275	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 604	$274	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 602	$273	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 549	$249	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 501	$227	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 497	$225	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 497	$225	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 481	$218	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 475	$215	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 471	$213	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 469	$213	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 468	$212	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knifeknife · covert	1 in 462	$209	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 454	$206	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	—	$196	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	—	$194	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	—	$189	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert	—	$188	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	—	$188	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	—	$186	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	—	$182	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	—	$179	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covert	—	$179	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	—	$179	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	—	$178	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	—	$174	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	—	$172	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert	—	$171	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	—	$167	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	—	$164	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	—	$162	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	—	$161	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	—	$156	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	—	$152	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	—	$152	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	—	$146	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	—	$145	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert	—	$143	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	—	$142	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	—	$142	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · Immortal	—	$137	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	—	$136	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	—	$136	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	—	$135	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	—	$135	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	—	$134	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	—	$134	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	—	$133	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	—	$133	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	—	$132	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	—	$131	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert	—	$130	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	—	$130	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	—	$129	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	—	$129	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	—	$129	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	—	$128	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	—	$126	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	—	$125	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	—	$123	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knifeknife · covert	—	$123	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	—	$121	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert	—	$121	0.0%	1	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	—	$119	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	—	$119	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 100	$118	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$118	1.0%	1	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$118	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · rare	1 in 100	$118	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$117	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$116	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$116	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$114	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$113	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 100	$111	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$111	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$108	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 100	$102	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 100	$101	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$98.72	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$97.25	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$96.77	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Classic Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$96.41	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$95.41	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$91.87	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 100	$90.12	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 100	$89.32	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 100	$87.66	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$86.52	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$84.58	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Classic Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$83.81	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knifeknife · covert	1 in 100	$83.29	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$83.04	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$82.42	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 100	$81.32	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knifeknife · covert	1 in 100	$79.65	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 100	$78.80	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 100	$77.63	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$76.97	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$74.30	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$71.30	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$71.26	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggersknife · covert	1 in 100	$70.81	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$69.82	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$67.36	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$64.84	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$61.53	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$55.92	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Survival Knifeknife · Immortal	1 in 100	$53.15	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	46.5%	$48.94	19.0%	5	3.7	1.34×

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from dropskin:cases-service/slug/knives/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covertRa's$200$47.290.24x4d

★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeRa's$200$1250.63x4d

★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covertRa's$200$1150.57x6d

★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covertRa's$200$47.720.24x6d

★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covertoj byczku$200$47.720.24x6d

★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertRa's$200$84.060.42x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 60.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$200	60.01%	150
10 Nov, 08:14 UTC	$200	62.08%	150
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$200	60.93%	150
8 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$200	60.59%	150
7 Nov, 10:51 UTC	$200	60.78%	150
6 Nov, 10:44 UTC	$200	60.69%	150
5 Nov, 10:38 UTC	$200	60.83%	150
4 Nov, 07:07 UTC	$200	62.94%	150
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$200	61.38%	150
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$200	61.41%	150

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 73.5%sunny 1.2%gold 2.2%Covert 3.5%covert knife 17.3%knifes 0.1%epic 0.2%Immortal 1.0%#ffd700 0.0%rare 1.0%best hit —