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A case on DROP.SKIN (gun_room), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

Price

$1.49

Advertised RTP

155.87%

EV $2.32 from 113 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.01%

1,218 openings, odds method

Variance

57.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 43

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

185 openings · below min

7 days

87.63%±44.071,076 openings

30 days

88.01%±41.331,218 openings

since tracking started

88.01%±41.331,218 openings

-0.5%90.0%180.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 151.24% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (46.68% – 129.34%, 1,218 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	185	70.14%±109.7	—	odds
7d	1,076	87.63%±44.1	−2.9σ	odds
30d	1,218	88.01%±41.3	−3.0σ	odds
All	1,218	88.01%±41.3	−3.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values113 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,218 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 9,091	$425	2.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 7,283	$341	2.0%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,949	$325	2.0%	0	0.2	—
Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 4,158	$194	2.0%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,626	$170	2.0%	0	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 3,561	$167	2.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,904	$136	2.0%	0	0.4	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,417	$113	2.0%	0	0.5	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,091	$97.76	2.0%	0	0.6	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,863	$87.10	2.0%	0	0.7	—
Souvenir UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 1,729	$80.83	2.0%	0	0.7	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 1,685	$78.80	2.0%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Bloomstick (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,544	$72.19	2.0%	0	0.8	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,408	$65.84	2.0%	0	0.9	—
★ Gut Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,335	$62.42	2.0%	0	0.9	—
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,141	$53.34	2.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,066	$49.83	2.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 931	$43.52	2.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 889	$41.58	2.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 688	$32.17	2.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
Souvenir G3SG1 \| Jungle Dashed (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 620	$28.97	2.0%	0	2.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 563	$26.31	2.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 395	$18.45	2.0%	1	3.1	0.32×
Souvenir Negev \| Infrastructure (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 378	$17.66	2.0%	4	3.2	1.24×
Souvenir MP7 \| Orange Peel (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 344	$16.09	2.0%	1	3.5	0.28×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Marina (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 340	$15.89	2.0%	6	3.6	1.67×
M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 333	$15.55	2.0%	1	3.7	0.27×
Souvenir AUG \| Random Access (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 253	$11.82	2.0%	4	4.8	0.83×
Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 240	$11.21	2.0%	5	5.1	0.98×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 168	$7.88	2.0%	2	7.2	0.28×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 641	$6.62	0.4%	7	1.9	3.69×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 617	$6.20	0.4%	1	2.0	0.51×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 600	$5.92	0.4%	2	2.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 589	$5.75	0.4%	3	2.1	1.45×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 580	$5.59	0.4%	8	2.1	3.81×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Momentum (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 555	$5.20	0.4%	0	2.2	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 541	$4.99	0.4%	4	2.2	1.78×
Souvenir G3SG1 \| New Roots (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 535	$4.89	0.4%	5	2.3	2.20×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 510	$4.51	0.4%	4	2.4	1.67×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 497	$4.32	0.4%	3	2.5	1.22×
Souvenir XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 485	$4.16	0.4%	1	2.5	0.40×
AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 474	$4.00	0.4%	2	2.6	0.78×
PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 465	$3.87	0.4%	4	2.6	1.53×
R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Field-Tested)weapon · 2	1 in 458	$3.78	0.4%	0	2.7	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Canal Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 399	$3.00	0.3%	2	3.1	0.66×
Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 361	$2.54	0.3%	7	3.4	2.08×
Nova \| Clear Polymer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 346	$2.37	0.3%	3	3.5	0.85×
MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Well-Worn)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 342	$2.32	0.3%	8	3.6	2.25×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 336	$2.26	0.3%	2	3.6	0.55×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 330	$2.19	0.3%	0	3.7	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 327	$2.16	0.3%	4	3.7	1.07×
MAC-10 \| Malachite (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 322	$2.10	0.3%	9	3.8	2.38×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 317	$2.04	0.3%	3	3.8	0.78×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 300	$1.86	0.3%	6	4.1	1.48×
Galil AR \| Kami (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 300	$1.86	0.3%	7	4.1	1.72×
Souvenir AUG \| Random Access (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 290	$1.76	0.3%	9	4.2	2.14×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 289	$1.75	0.3%	6	4.2	1.42×
UMP-45 \| Indigo (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 285	$1.71	0.3%	4	4.3	0.94×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Mainframe (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 285	$1.71	0.3%	3	4.3	0.70×
Nova \| Walnut (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 277	$1.63	0.3%	4	4.4	0.91×
Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 276	$1.63	0.3%	7	4.4	1.59×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 268	$1.55	0.2%	13	4.5	2.86×
Negev \| Dazzle (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 265	$1.51	0.2%	8	4.6	1.74×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 263	$1.50	0.2%	15	4.6	3.24×
Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 61	$1.46	1.0%	0	19.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 61	$1.45	1.0%	15	20.0	0.75×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 60	$1.42	1.0%	33	20.2	1.64×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 59	$1.36	1.0%	20	20.6	0.97×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 59	$1.35	1.0%	26	20.7	1.26×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 58	$1.33	1.0%	20	20.9	0.96×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 58	$1.32	1.0%	12	20.9	0.57×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Night (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 58	$1.30	1.0%	23	21.0	1.09×
XM1014 \| Urban Perforated (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 57	$1.23	0.9%	29	21.5	1.35×
Souvenir G3SG1 \| Polar Camo (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 56	$1.20	0.9%	23	21.8	1.06×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 55	$1.18	0.9%	12	22.0	0.55×
Souvenir P90 \| Verdant Growth (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Uncommon	1 in 55	$1.14	0.9%	18	22.2	0.81×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 54	$1.10	0.9%	34	22.5	1.51×
Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 54	$1.07	0.9%	27	22.7	1.19×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Lumen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 53	$1.04	0.8%	12	22.9	0.52×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Scumbria (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 53	$1.03	0.8%	24	23.0	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted	1 in 52	$0.95	0.8%	20	23.5	0.85×
MP7 \| Guerrilla (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 52	$0.93	0.8%	29	23.6	1.23×
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear)weapon · 3	1 in 51	$0.92	0.8%	19	23.7	0.80×
SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 51	$0.92	0.8%	30	23.7	1.27×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$0.91	0.8%	31	23.8	1.30×
StatTrak™ M249 \| System Lock (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 51	$0.88	0.7%	19	23.9	0.79×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$0.83	0.7%	11	24.2	0.46×
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$0.76	0.7%	0	24.5	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 49	$0.64	0.6%	0	24.7	0.00×
P90 \| Traction (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 49	$0.61	0.5%	18	24.7	0.73×
Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 49	$0.60	0.5%	22	24.6	0.89×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Downtown (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 49	$0.60	0.5%	20	24.6	0.81×
StatTrak™ Negev \| dev_texture (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 49	$0.59	0.5%	21	24.6	0.85×
Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$0.58	0.5%	29	24.6	1.18×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Motorized (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.52	0.4%	21	24.3	0.86×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Triqua (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 50	$0.51	0.4%	25	24.2	1.03×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 53	$0.41	0.3%	15	23.1	0.65×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 53	$0.40	0.3%	25	22.9	1.09×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Oceanic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 53	$0.39	0.3%	26	22.8	1.14×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Assault (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 54	$0.38	0.3%	19	22.6	0.84×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 54	$0.38	0.3%	0	22.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Assault (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 54	$0.38	0.3%	19	22.5	0.84×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 57	$0.32	0.2%	25	21.2	1.18×
Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$0.31	0.2%	17	20.9	0.81×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Azure Glyph (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 59	$0.31	0.2%	24	20.7	1.16×
Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Coolant (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 59	$0.30	0.2%	22	20.5	1.07×
UMP-45 \| Briefing (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 60	$0.29	0.2%	21	20.2	1.04×
SG 553 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 69	$0.23	0.1%	13	17.6	0.74×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fubar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 75	$0.20	0.1%	29	16.2	1.79×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Triqua (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 79	$0.19	0.1%	0	15.4	0.00×
Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Inlay (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 83	$0.18	0.1%	13	14.7	0.89×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 114	$0.13	0.0%	12	10.6	1.13×
Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Inlay (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 135	$0.11	0.0%	7	9.0	0.78×

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from dropskin:cases-service/slug/loadout/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythicalxantarespeek$1.49$0.760.51x1h

Galil AR | Kami (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specxantarespeek$1.49$1.861.25x1h

Souvenir SSG 08 | Azure Glyph (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Gradexantarespeek$1.49$0.310.21x1h

UMP-45 | Briefing (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecOdin_ne_0din$1.49$0.290.20x1h

SCAR-20 | Assault (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specOdin_ne_0din$1.49$0.380.25x1h

Souvenir G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer GradeToNixX$1.49$1.200.81x2h

StatTrak™ Negev | dev_texture (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedToNixX$1.49$0.590.40x3h

Tec-9 | Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecToNixX$1.49$1.751.18x3h

SG 553 | Aloha (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffToNixX$1.49$0.230.15x3h

Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ffToNixX$1.49$0.580.39x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 155.87%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$1.49	155.87%	113
10 Nov, 08:14 UTC	$1.49	153.93%	113
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$1.49	149.18%	113
8 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$1.49	150.04%	113
7 Nov, 10:51 UTC	$1.49	148.73%	113
6 Nov, 10:44 UTC	$1.49	149.89%	113
5 Nov, 10:38 UTC	$1.49	155.26%	113
4 Nov, 07:07 UTC	$1.49	151.97%	113
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$1.49	147.37%	113
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$1.49	146.86%	113

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed2 0.2%3 1.9%covert knife 0.1%Covert 0.0%restricted 7.6%Restricted 6.9%covert 0.5%Mil Spec Grade 9.1%#d32ee6 0.1%Legendary 0.1%Consumer Grade 6.2%classified 0.7%mil spec 3.0%industrial 0.5%Industrial Grade 6.4%Classified 0.3%violet 13.9%#87c7ff 0.3%Mythical 2.8%#8847ff 9.7%milspec 14.0%Common 2.1%blue 4.2%Uncommon 1.8%Rare 3.9%#4b69ff 3.4%best hit —