LOCKER
A case on DROP.SKIN (gun_room), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$0.29
Advertised RTP
94.06%
EV $0.27 from 60 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.26%
5,918 openings, odds method
Variance
9.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 98.16% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (63.81% – 80.71%, 5,918 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values60 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,919 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/locker/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.06%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $0.29 | 94.06% | 60 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $0.29 | 96.92% | 60 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.29 | 97.42% | 60 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.29 | 98.59% | 60 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $0.29 | 97.04% | 60 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $0.29 | 98.63% | 60 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $0.29 | 99.58% | 60 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $0.29 | 98.99% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $0.29 | 99.06% | 60 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $0.29 | 100.55% | 60 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.0%restricted 0.3%classified 0.0%mil spec 11.4%Uncommon 1.7%#d32ce6 0.0%Mil Spec Grade 4.2%Restricted 0.5%pink 0.1%Industrial 0.1%violet 0.9%Mil Spec 0.2%Industrial Grade 0.2%milspec 26.2%Mythical 0.3%Rare 4.0%#4b69ff 7.8%blue 7.1%consumer 8.6%Consumer Grade 14.3%#B0C3D9 3.7%light blue 3.7%Common 2.5%Consumer 1.5%#777777 0.4%best hit —