MECHANIC
A case on DROP.SKIN (only), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$10.00
Advertised RTP
100.69%
EV $10.07 from 71 items
Observed RTP, 30d
67.32%
312 openings, odds method
Variance
7.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 23
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 99.33% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (37.47% – 97.17%, 312 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values71 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 312 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/mechanic/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 100.69%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $10.00 | 100.69% | 74 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $10.00 | 100.24% | 74 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $10.00 | 98.53% | 74 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $10.00 | 101.28% | 74 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $10.00 | 98.94% | 74 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $10.00 | 98.30% | 74 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $10.00 | 97.69% | 74 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $10.00 | 98.89% | 74 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $10.00 | 100.21% | 74 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $10.00 | 100.57% | 74 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.9%classified 26.4%Legendary 5.9%Ancient 0.2%red 0.9%pink 22.2%Classified 0.0%#d32ee6 10.0%Restricted 6.0%mil spec 24.5%best hit —