MEGAKNIGHT
A case on DROP.SKIN (knives), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.
Price
$23.40
Advertised RTP
127.24%
EV $29.78 from 43 items
Observed RTP, 30d
71.76%
53 openings, odds method
Variance
20.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 53 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
dropskin:cases-service/slug/megaknight/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 127.24%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $23.40 | 127.24% | 43 |
| 10 Nov, 08:14 UTC | $23.40 | 128.07% | 43 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $23.40 | 120.49% | 43 |
| 8 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $23.40 | 128.69% | 43 |
| 7 Nov, 10:51 UTC | $23.40 | 127.81% | 43 |
| 6 Nov, 10:44 UTC | $23.40 | 128.04% | 43 |
| 5 Nov, 10:38 UTC | $23.40 | 126.60% | 43 |
| 4 Nov, 07:07 UTC | $23.40 | 126.80% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 07:29 UTC | $23.40 | 128.46% | 43 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $23.40 | 128.66% | 43 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 0.5%#ffd700 0.1%covert 16.1%gold 0.6%red 0.8%Ancient 1.0%classified 11.0%pink 5.0%#8847ff 21.0%restricted 10.0%Legendary 14.0%Restricted 20.0%best hit —